Dec 30, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) reacts to the call that his basket was only worth two-points against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the finals seconds of the fourth quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
After yet another humiliating defeat, this time against the Atlanta Hawks, superstar LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers tweeted an hourglass emoji, his most recent coded message for a struggling club in a career full of them.
Renowned LeBron whisperer Dave McMenamin of ESPN pondered over several readings of the tweet, all of which concluded that James doesn’t have much time left to turn around these Lakers.
Dec. 13: The Lakers were 15-10 and in sixth place in the Western Conference. Although the defense was strong enough to rank sixth in net rating (111 points allowed per 100 possessions) despite the poor offense (ranked 21st in net rating, 112.1 points per 100 possessions), we thought there was still a chance for another run to the conference finals. Since then, they are 9–15.
Worse than even tanking teams. The defense has been in the NBA’s bottom 10 for the last seven weeks, along with the offense (tied for 22nd in net rating, allowing 118.9 points per 100 possessions).
What changed? As “six sources with direct knowledge of the situation” told The Athletic that “a deepening disconnect between Darvin Ham and the Lakers locker room” is “raising questions about the head coach’s standing,” the players attempted to have their coach fired, reprimanded, or whatever else they were trying to accomplish.
Since that article emerged, the Lakers have conceded 125 points or more in 10 of their 15 games, giving up a league-worst 20 points per game due to turnovers. According to Second Spectrum, they are covering less ground on the field than any team save the Phoenix Suns, all the while playing at one of the fastest and slowest rates in the NBA. This is the proof you need if you want to know about a team that turned on its coach.
It also won’t get any simpler. The Lakers have one of the most difficult schedules left in the NBA. It includes a six-game road trip at the end of March, two games each against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets, who lead the West, and a tour through Boston and New York this week (neither James nor Davis are healthy enough to play the rival Celtics on Thursday).
The Lakers are attempting in vain to package their remaining assets in an attempt to help them qualify for the playoffs, league insiders told Yahoo Sports. Similar to the previous year, when they signed D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, and Rui Hachimura ahead of schedule. For the Milwaukee Bucks, Beasley is currently hitting 45.5% from three-point range. The other players are being traded in hopes of winning a championship.
In Tuesday’s 138-122 victory over the Lakers, Hawks supporters were yelling, “We don’t want you,” as Russell tried to make a free throw. This was in response to rumors that the Lakers’ management is trying to trade Russell for Dejounte Murray of Atlanta. Fans are correct, too. Russell is of what value to a team that thought Murray was a misfit? Perhaps Russell might be acquired by a third team, such as the Brooklyn Nets, in order to mediate a trade between Atlanta and Los Angeles. Alternately, perhaps the Hawks have no interest at all.
The only items the Lakers have to deal are Jalen Hood-Schifino, the No. 17 selection who averaged 1.9 points per game on 23/9/64 shooting splits as a rookie, and their 2029 first-round draft pick, along with a few more picks and seconds.
That’s not much for the greatest player on the field. Just as I would love to spend less on groceries, the Lakers would prefer not to trade for Austin Reaves. However, the market will determine how much their best offer can return, whether it is Murray by himself or several movements further down the edges.
What happens next? Do the Lakers qualify for another play-in tournament? Four years have passed since they emerged victorious from the bubble, with James and Anthony Davis having just finished a four-month layoff.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Lakers this year are plus-1.2 points per 100 important possessions when James and Davis are playing, which is comparable to the Houston Rockets – with their two best players. If you take James out of the equation, the Lakers are similar to the Utah Jazz in that they are down 2.7 points for every 100 non-garbage possessions. As the top eight seems to be set in stone, look what happened to the West standings:
- The Lakers of Los Angeles (24–25)
- Jazz Utah (24–25)
- Rockets of Houston (22-25)
Would you consider either the Jazz or the Rockets a contender for a title if they were able to get Murray or one or more elite role players before the deadline? No. You wouldn’t do that. You would believe they were, at most, second-round playoff fodder. We like to believe that a Lakers team with a new roster can still contend because they still have future Hall of Famers James and Davis, who are putting up All-NBA performances.
Using the same lineup that they used to win the Western Conference, they are back to producing. Here is how the Lakers’ offense and defense would have ranked over the previous five years if James and Davis were still playing:
2019–20: First on offense; First on defense
2020–21: First in defense and eighth in offense
2021–2022: 25th in offense and 13th in defense
2022–2023: First Defense; 14th Offense
2023–24: 15th in Offense, 16th in Defense
Aside from the fact that this season is most similar to the 2021–22 campaign, in which the Lakers won 33 games but were unable to advance to the play-in round, what stands out about those numbers? They are no longer playing at the peak of a league-leading defense. James, who is 39 years old, is unable to continue carrying the required load on both ends, Russell and Jarred Vanderbilt are among the team’s many offensive or defensive first-choice players, and Gabe Vincent, their finest two-way addition, is sidelined.
Apart from Murray, the Lakers have a shopping list that includes a number of lower-end rotation players (Finney-Smith’s Brooklyn Nets colleagues Spencer Dinwiddie and Royce O’Neale are reportedly among them), as well as two-way guys like Bruce Brown, Alex Caruso, and Dorian Finney-Smith who may be helpful to any club.
If the Toronto Raptors are asking for a first-round draft selection and a quality player in exchange for Brown, as Marc Stein wrote, then their best trade package (apart from Reaves) might return one top target but not two. “Lakers fans, players, and the organization probably have to temper their expectations on this trade deadline,” stated ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Waiting might be their best option. Although I understand that many Laker supporters would prefer not to hear it, there aren’t many difference-makers available in the market right now
If the Lakers’ best-case closing lineup consists of James, Davis, Reaves, Brown, and a healthy Vincent, how much more are you willing to trust them? That includes two All-Stars, a player selected for the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, and two starters from the NBA Finals the previous campaign. Well, that is something in theory.
We’re not sure if James and Davis can continue to lead a squad capable of winning championships on both ends. We believe it could be because lineups led by James and Davis were able to outscore opponents by 20.4 points per 100 possessions while playing like the top team in the league. But keep in mind that there were seven games in November and December versus the relatively healthy Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, and Indiana Pacers; the less-than-full strength Phoenix Suns (twice); the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies; the injury-ravaged Portland Trail Blazers; and the injury-depleted Portland Trail Blazers.
In order to compete against the Western Conference playoff field, the Lakers must maintain that for two months. To get to the NBA Finals, where the Celtics might be waiting, they currently have to win two must-win play-in playoff games and best-of-seven upsets of Minnesota, Denver, the Oklahoma City Thunder, or the Los Angeles Clippers.
Considering that James and Davis had missed an average of 30 games between them over the past three seasons, it feels like a small miracle that they have only missed eight games combined. Only six players have played more minutes than Davis this season, and James is getting close to reaching a career high in minutes. They must improve their play against a murderer’s row for four more rounds in order to advance to the play-in event, where they hope to include many rotation players. They have 33 games to go to earn a spot in the tournament.
If James hadn’t frequently shown himself willing to defy his doubters—including Father Time—that would feel like too much.
Do you recall the hourglass emoji? What if James and the Lakers are out of time—and this isn’t as dramatic as it has ever been—? James has abandoned four-year contracts in Cleveland and Miami after each team used up every asset until none remained to mend the damage surrounding him. By this year’s deadline, the Lakers are almost there, but James needs assistance now more than he has in the past.
What would happen if it fails, if he is unable to navigate that unlikely path to an 11th Finals? Would they package Reaves and the three first-round picks they will have in June for the most recent trip around a third star? Would they assemble another group of minimum-paid veterans? Would they end up like the Suns this year, another fringe contender?
Initially, James has to decide whether to exercise his $51.4 million option to stay in Los Angeles or to explore free agency. James will have to make the first decision of his career on whether he can continue to drive a championship bus or whether it is time to board one if he is still pursuing “the ghost” of Michael Jordan.
